Just read on Dronelife.com an article from @MarketWatch. Citing heavy competition 3DR shifting focus from the consumer market to commercial platforms. Sounds like the consumer SOLO failed. IDK
3DR To Cut Jobs & Shift Focus
- Thread starter Solo Keith
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Nope, from what I read it almost did too well - flooding the market forcing DJI, Yuneec and others to lower prices drastically.
@Marich I sure hope so. SOLO is such an amazing creation & the story behind it. As you can tell, I'm hooked on the damn thing
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this is why i never back to buy super BUGGY dji products DJI Forum|DJI confirms they will Auto-land your Drone
A bug is an accident, I guess what they're saying is it's a feature since it's intentional lol
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Post the link.......
Drone-maker 3D Robotics cuts jobs, refocuses on corporate market
Drone-maker 3D Robotics cuts jobs, refocuses on corporate market
Well, business is business.
Consumers drone market is now majority controlled by DJI, DJI can throw US$100mil down the drain and still smile and they won't collapse.
If 3DR is indeed only $99mil funded :
"The company is one of the better funded among a growing number of drone startups, and has raised a total of $99 million in four funding rounds. "
That is a small amount of funds to battle DJI. DJI knows how much it cost to make a Solo, all they got to do is sell Phantom 3 Adv and Pro at a price point where 3DR can't make profit on Solo if 3DR is to do a price cut ........., then bye bye majority of consumer market profit for Solo.
What separate Solo from DJI Phantom is , Solo is made from zero for movie making platform and at the hands of professionals it is a powerful low cost tool with fast learning curve.
Me being a dumb drone pilot is happy Solo exist to speed up my goal, which is hopefully take better aerial footage while needing the least piloting skill
DJI on the other hand target every sector, and I still believe that the flying-for-fun sector is still way much bigger than true video/movie making crowd. One can take great aerial footage but not everyone can make a beautiful 3 minute video worth watching while it does include some portion being aerial footage and land footage. Aerial footage looks cool and awesome in 2012 but it is boring today, unless it has really spectacular content to watch.
The more spectacular the aerial video one manage to capture, the more one EVENTUALLY will not want to share publicly, this is common sense, it takes $$ and time to capture those difficult or spectacular shoots, so videos like this goes into commercial sector as stock footage or a paid job. Someting to get payback or it is the intention of the videographer that commercial sector is what they are after. These specialized artists probably are not even 5% of a Solo or DJI market. How would a drone company survive selling a drone to such niche market segment if the price point is consumer price at US$1,000 with gimbal ( no camera ) ?
From business point of view, DJI would be more efficient I would guess.
Not only it has economy of scale, it is based in China and a Chinese company and production of all these drones thingy is plenty in China, not Mexico. The speed of developing something new or making something new at production stage, a US based company can't compete with the Chinese with production backyard in China or even a US company with supporting Chinese suppliers involved. Solo label stated MADE IN CHINA.
Whatever DJI buy at 100,000 pcs from their suppliers, 3DR can only buy at best 7,000 pcs or less, that alone means DJI pay less per unit and will be prioritized by suplliers to actually make the product for DJI first and other brands can wait in line. Probably that is what happen to Solo's delayed gimbal...money and quantity talks. Perhaps DJI has enough sales volume to make its own mini factory for their gimbal.
DJI cut price is not because Solo sold "plenty" I don't believe that, what DJI did is the same as what Ronald Reagan did to Russia during the cold war........ tell the Saudis to reduce oil price and see who got more money in the end. That Reagan move made Russia see Chapter 11.
Cut 3DR Solo's profit by slashing drone benchmark price, the Phantom 3 Professional at US$999 where one get free 4K camera + gimbal + superior range Lightbridge and 3DR sales will eventually shrink. As it is now 3DR Solo is like US$400 more money apple to apple compared to P3 Pro due to no freebie 4K camera on Solo, but it is not a pure US$400 more expensive, because Solo Smart Shots capability has $$ value. Since 95% of drone consumers are not video artists, most will go for P3 Pro probably. This is what DJI hope to happen and it will happen.
The difficult part for 3DR in this drone business is , 3DR need to fight a rich Chinese giant, established, started in 2006 where 3DR started in 2007??. The way things usually work ( except iPhone for the time being ) , developed country brands slowly eroded by developing country brands where labor rate is much lower and labor union has no "teeth/power". Whatever extra cost a brand have to endure being manufactured in a developed nation is extra cost, another downside. Now its the opposite, a developed nation brand trying to fight a product coming from a developing nation on a global market. It is tough.
If consumer drones are super high tech like aircraft or space vehicle, US company may win, but if so..... the price point will be so high and there won't be affordable high tech consumer drones market in the first place...LOL.
I do not want 3DR to stop its consumers market drone, I like 3DR innovation and open system.
However in the end money talks. How can a business survive where retail is projected at US$1400* ( *less dealer margin) calculated as revenue for a Solo with gimbal and suddenly slashed to US$1,000 ?
US$400 gone is a lot of money for a Solo price bracket, it is probably above the profit margin 3DR has for Solo. Adding insult to injury, Phantom 3 Adv & Pro already accumulated sales and profits for like 8 months or so. DJI timed the price cut just right, which is when the Solo gimbal actually in proper production volume and proven to be a decently good product.
My 2 cents
Consumers drone market is now majority controlled by DJI, DJI can throw US$100mil down the drain and still smile and they won't collapse.
If 3DR is indeed only $99mil funded :
"The company is one of the better funded among a growing number of drone startups, and has raised a total of $99 million in four funding rounds. "
That is a small amount of funds to battle DJI. DJI knows how much it cost to make a Solo, all they got to do is sell Phantom 3 Adv and Pro at a price point where 3DR can't make profit on Solo if 3DR is to do a price cut ........., then bye bye majority of consumer market profit for Solo.
What separate Solo from DJI Phantom is , Solo is made from zero for movie making platform and at the hands of professionals it is a powerful low cost tool with fast learning curve.
Me being a dumb drone pilot is happy Solo exist to speed up my goal, which is hopefully take better aerial footage while needing the least piloting skill
DJI on the other hand target every sector, and I still believe that the flying-for-fun sector is still way much bigger than true video/movie making crowd. One can take great aerial footage but not everyone can make a beautiful 3 minute video worth watching while it does include some portion being aerial footage and land footage. Aerial footage looks cool and awesome in 2012 but it is boring today, unless it has really spectacular content to watch.
The more spectacular the aerial video one manage to capture, the more one EVENTUALLY will not want to share publicly, this is common sense, it takes $$ and time to capture those difficult or spectacular shoots, so videos like this goes into commercial sector as stock footage or a paid job. Someting to get payback or it is the intention of the videographer that commercial sector is what they are after. These specialized artists probably are not even 5% of a Solo or DJI market. How would a drone company survive selling a drone to such niche market segment if the price point is consumer price at US$1,000 with gimbal ( no camera ) ?
From business point of view, DJI would be more efficient I would guess.
Not only it has economy of scale, it is based in China and a Chinese company and production of all these drones thingy is plenty in China, not Mexico. The speed of developing something new or making something new at production stage, a US based company can't compete with the Chinese with production backyard in China or even a US company with supporting Chinese suppliers involved. Solo label stated MADE IN CHINA.
Whatever DJI buy at 100,000 pcs from their suppliers, 3DR can only buy at best 7,000 pcs or less, that alone means DJI pay less per unit and will be prioritized by suplliers to actually make the product for DJI first and other brands can wait in line. Probably that is what happen to Solo's delayed gimbal...money and quantity talks. Perhaps DJI has enough sales volume to make its own mini factory for their gimbal.
DJI cut price is not because Solo sold "plenty" I don't believe that, what DJI did is the same as what Ronald Reagan did to Russia during the cold war........ tell the Saudis to reduce oil price and see who got more money in the end. That Reagan move made Russia see Chapter 11.
Cut 3DR Solo's profit by slashing drone benchmark price, the Phantom 3 Professional at US$999 where one get free 4K camera + gimbal + superior range Lightbridge and 3DR sales will eventually shrink. As it is now 3DR Solo is like US$400 more money apple to apple compared to P3 Pro due to no freebie 4K camera on Solo, but it is not a pure US$400 more expensive, because Solo Smart Shots capability has $$ value. Since 95% of drone consumers are not video artists, most will go for P3 Pro probably. This is what DJI hope to happen and it will happen.
The difficult part for 3DR in this drone business is , 3DR need to fight a rich Chinese giant, established, started in 2006 where 3DR started in 2007??. The way things usually work ( except iPhone for the time being ) , developed country brands slowly eroded by developing country brands where labor rate is much lower and labor union has no "teeth/power". Whatever extra cost a brand have to endure being manufactured in a developed nation is extra cost, another downside. Now its the opposite, a developed nation brand trying to fight a product coming from a developing nation on a global market. It is tough.
If consumer drones are super high tech like aircraft or space vehicle, US company may win, but if so..... the price point will be so high and there won't be affordable high tech consumer drones market in the first place...LOL.
I do not want 3DR to stop its consumers market drone, I like 3DR innovation and open system.
However in the end money talks. How can a business survive where retail is projected at US$1400* ( *less dealer margin) calculated as revenue for a Solo with gimbal and suddenly slashed to US$1,000 ?
US$400 gone is a lot of money for a Solo price bracket, it is probably above the profit margin 3DR has for Solo. Adding insult to injury, Phantom 3 Adv & Pro already accumulated sales and profits for like 8 months or so. DJI timed the price cut just right, which is when the Solo gimbal actually in proper production volume and proven to be a decently good product.
My 2 cents
i got pretty upset at their messy Solo launch but I do wish they'll stick around for the long haul and will continue support Solo via upgrade parts and good customer serivce.
No one likes to drop thousands as early adopter only to see the company fail...an American one at that.
No one likes to drop thousands as early adopter only to see the company fail...an American one at that.
Fully agree to what you say.Well, business is business.
Consumers drone market is now majority controlled by DJI, DJI can throw US$100mil down the drain and still smile and they won't collapse.
If 3DR is indeed only $99mil funded :
"The company is one of the better funded among a growing number of drone startups, and has raised a total of $99 million in four funding rounds. "
That is a small amount of funds to battle DJI. DJI knows how much it cost to make a Solo, all they got to do is sell Phantom 3 Adv and Pro at a price point where 3DR can't make profit on Solo if 3DR is to do a price cut ........., then bye bye majority of consumer market profit for Solo.
What separate Solo from DJI Phantom is , Solo is made from zero for movie making platform and at the hands of professionals it is a powerful low cost tool with fast learning curve.
Me being a dumb drone pilot is happy Solo exist to speed up my goal, which is hopefully take better aerial footage while needing the least piloting skill
DJI on the other hand target every sector, and I still believe that the flying-for-fun sector is still way much bigger than true video/movie making crowd. One can take great aerial footage but not everyone can make a beautiful 3 minute video worth watching while it does include some portion being aerial footage and land footage. Aerial footage looks cool and awesome in 2012 but it is boring today, unless it has really spectacular content to watch.
The more spectacular the aerial video one manage to capture, the more one EVENTUALLY will not want to share publicly, this is common sense, it takes $$ and time to capture those difficult or spectacular shoots, so videos like this goes into commercial sector as stock footage or a paid job. Someting to get payback or it is the intention of the videographer that commercial sector is what they are after. These specialized artists probably are not even 5% of a Solo or DJI market. How would a drone company survive selling a drone to such niche market segment if the price point is consumer price at US$1,000 with gimbal ( no camera ) ?
From business point of view, DJI would be more efficient I would guess.
Not only it has economy of scale, it is based in China and a Chinese company and production of all these drones thingy is plenty in China, not Mexico. The speed of developing something new or making something new at production stage, a US based company can't compete with the Chinese with production backyard in China or even a US company with supporting Chinese suppliers involved. Solo label stated MADE IN CHINA.
Whatever DJI buy at 100,000 pcs from their suppliers, 3DR can only buy at best 7,000 pcs or less, that alone means DJI pay less per unit and will be prioritized by suplliers to actually make the product for DJI first and other brands can wait in line. Probably that is what happen to Solo's delayed gimbal...money and quantity talks. Perhaps DJI has enough sales volume to make its own mini factory for their gimbal.
DJI cut price is not because Solo sold "plenty" I don't believe that, what DJI did is the same as what Ronald Reagan did to Russia during the cold war........ tell the Saudis to reduce oil price and see who got more money in the end. That Reagan move made Russia see Chapter 11.
Cut 3DR Solo's profit by slashing drone benchmark price, the Phantom 3 Professional at US$999 where one get free 4K camera + gimbal + superior range Lightbridge and 3DR sales will eventually shrink. As it is now 3DR Solo is like US$400 more money apple to apple compared to P3 Pro due to no freebie 4K camera on Solo, but it is not a pure US$400 more expensive, because Solo Smart Shots capability has $$ value. Since 95% of drone consumers are not video artists, most will go for P3 Pro probably. This is what DJI hope to happen and it will happen.
The difficult part for 3DR in this drone business is , 3DR need to fight a rich Chinese giant, established, started in 2006 where 3DR started in 2007??. The way things usually work ( except iPhone for the time being ) , developed country brands slowly eroded by developing country brands where labor rate is much lower and labor union has no "teeth/power". Whatever extra cost a brand have to endure being manufactured in a developed nation is extra cost, another downside. Now its the opposite, a developed nation brand trying to fight a product coming from a developing nation on a global market. It is tough.
If consumer drones are super high tech like aircraft or space vehicle, US company may win, but if so..... the price point will be so high and there won't be affordable high tech consumer drones market in the first place...LOL.
I do not want 3DR to stop its consumers market drone, I like 3DR innovation and open system.
However in the end money talks. How can a business survive where retail is projected at US$1400* ( *less dealer margin) calculated as revenue for a Solo with gimbal and suddenly slashed to US$1,000 ?
US$400 gone is a lot of money for a Solo price bracket, it is probably above the profit margin 3DR has for Solo. Adding insult to injury, Phantom 3 Adv & Pro already accumulated sales and profits for like 8 months or so. DJI timed the price cut just right, which is when the Solo gimbal actually in proper production volume and proven to be a decently good product.
My 2 cents
3DR cannot compete on price.
Its David against Goliath.
But they can out- innovate and out-service the almost monopolist.
There are enough examples in industry: Apple killed Nokia, Amazon disrupted the traditional book industry, Tesla currently out-innovates the traditional high end car manufacturers.
Staying smart and nimble in your niche , combined with superior customer service is key to success.
DJI may make them cheaper...but been there with their "features/bugs"...I will always pay a more for product reliability and longevity
But longevity is exactly what seems to be under threat now for the Solo. Surely this re-direction will reduce the likelihood of further development, software improvements, and 3rd party innovations? Will Solo parts still even be available in the long run? It's really not good news
Would be good to have some positive assurance from 3DR, but perhaps they're not in a position to do so.
It's really a shame 3dr can't compete with DJI. The Solo wipes the floor with a Phantom in terms of capabilities that actually matter to creating great content. Too bad DJI has hooked customers the same way Apple created iPhone fanatics. It's a no win situation with the masses believing all the fluffed spec matter more than the power of smart shots and raw untapped power of the companion computer. I've been diving deep into Solo firmware and creating companion scripts ..... blown away by what is possible and just begging for development. In the end Solo is just too much computing power and potential for what the market has been conditioned to want....a crappy 4k camera with way too much fpv range to be legal!
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Seems to me that, since the Solo is the vehicle they seem to be designing new commercial systems for, it's more guaranteed than ever Solo replacements and parts will be here.But longevity is exactly what seems to be under threat now for the Solo. Surely this re-direction will reduce the likelihood of further development, software improvements, and 3rd party innovations? Will Solo parts still even be available in the long run? It's really not good news
Would be good to have some positive assurance from 3DR, but perhaps they're not in a position to do so.
But longevity is exactly what seems to be under threat now for the Solo. Surely this re-direction will reduce the likelihood of further development, software improvements, and 3rd party innovations? Will Solo parts still even be available in the long run? It's really not good news
Would be good to have some positive assurance from 3DR, but perhaps they're not in a position to do so.
If the day comes that the Solo as a consumer platform is unsupported I doubt it would have little effect on the brains that make it so special. I could see spare parts support drying up or being limited in choice but as it is right now you can easily change the pixhawk2 firmware to another vehicle base and drop the guts into a new chassis other than the plastic Solo shell with stock motors and gimbal. That's the beauty of it being an open platform...just takes a bit of elbow grease.
I agree Steve, I too hope 3DR will stay in consumer sectors as long as they can and hopefully prosper, so that we all can enjoy further software and hardware development.
I also hope US government will help 3DR at some point and we who likes Solo will support 3DR more & more and Americans buy more 3DR products when they can, instead of other brands. Clapping needs two hands, 3DR can't do it alone. The Japanese in the 80-90s support home made brands to such a point you won't believe and 80-90s were Japan golden era globally too, demolishing US and European TV brands during those periods.
However basic mathematics applies, and since profits finance operation and innovation, 3DR is now very fragile at US$1,000 Solo with gimbal IF for consumer market.
If US dealer discount assuming is 20% from Solo previous $1,400 with gimbal, we get $1,050
Now its US$800 into 3DR pocket at $1,000 retail with gimbal if at 20% discount. If to distributors outside USA, probably 25% discount minimum, otherwise distributors can't work and even so 5% is not workable, probably dealers get 15% off only outside USA and distributors get 10%, being 25% off = $750 into 3DR pocket.
Now the commercial side of 3DR. Site Scan.
Site Scan™ (Hardware + Annual License) - 3DR
Hardware US$3,249 , licence US$299 x 12 months. Total US$6,837
The extra true hardware, not software is Sony Xperia Tablet Z4* ( *it does not look as a 10" Z4 width wise because it should be wider than the controller, but also aspect ratio wise does not look like an 8" Xperia Z3 ) which let we assume worth US$600, GoPro Black at US$500 and the bag at US$137, spare pros + 64GB SD card assume at US$70 = balance US$1,840 rounded.
That means approx US$840 is the cost Apps itself in the Sony tablet, US$1K for Solo + gimbal.
And then US$299 per month income for 3DR Licence.
Software is beautiful, it cost next to nothing to reproduce a copy for it but making one is expensive.
Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and even Apple with its iOS is what generate revenue and its something one can not copy easily without getting sued. Hardware, unless you have custom propretiary chip, its easier to reverse engineer.
So a commercial Solo Site Scan if any 1 customer buy from 3DR, assuming US$840 is the initial software cost of Site Scan, per month it generates US$299 licence fee. Its like selling a Solo, with profit of $299 every month for 12 months non-stop to 1 person. Awesome.
US$299 is near 1/3rd of a Solo price of US$1,000 today with gimbal.
Its kinda fit the 33/33/33% typical restaurant business calculation for food, not drinks : 33% cost of goods + 33% profit + 33% operational cost.
So per year 3DR only need to sell 1/12th by QTY to commercial sector to get 100% same profit to consumer sector. By 2nd year if the owner of Site Scan Solo Kit extend its licence, its another beautiful income. By 3rd year its even more beautiful for 3DR, with income coming from 1st & 2nd year Site Scan owner.
Looking at all these commercial Site Scan for Solo , the positive side of things is, SOLO consumers sales won't be killed as it is the same Solo we all owned that they use for Site Scan Kit, spare parts will be available too. However, will 3DR expand/improve the Smart Shots capability for us consumers ? That is the biggest question. Will 3DR develop other technology like collision avoidance or those height calculating dual cameras options for indoor use, for us hobby dudes ?
As far as fimware update for Solo or Pixhawk we may or may not get one as good as the Site Scan Kit version, maybe.
Looking at all these, I am sure 3 more years is easy for Solo drone to still exist for us consumer sector.
3DR can't sell Site Scan and kill it so soon. Commercial users are not gadget crazy like us consumers sector, they stick to what works and cameras do get smaller and smaller, so payload capability of Solo may still be suitable for let say version 2 Site Scan Kits.
Commercial sectors are also a better customers in the way that they respect and maintain their gear as a tool to generate income. They don't do crazy things consumers do. They spend money to generate more money, not like us spending money for pure fun. They would be a more responsible drone operator for sure.
I think 3DR understood that in near future, consumer drones will be much more and more restricted in all countries wordl wide. This will surely happen, its just a matter of WHEN. Some terrorist sending 1 kg bomb payload to a crowd during an outdoor concert or sending a drone into commercial jet engine during take off can happen in the future and that may trigger the death of consumer drones, but commercial drone heavily regulated will stay.
One unique story here. Singapore banned chewing gum. Read on to why they banned it.
Chewing gum ban in Singapore - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a good move and save lots of $$.
Any country in the world will ban any product as when they see fit, if there is a good reason for it.
Consumer drones will be one of them , my guess is within the next 2-4 years most countries regulations will not favor hobby/consumer drones.
USA is probably the world biggest consumers of hobby/consumers drone, as with most fun or gadget stuff in life, USA is world biggest consumers, hell its like the world biggest consumers for everything* ( *including drugs ) due to its wealth and high income per capita.
A goverment is like any business enterprise, they will calculate tax revenue from "X" product vs cost of liability or security enforcement for it and if this product falls under non-necessity or not.
Let's do the math :
AviTrader – Worldwide drone sales could reach US$36.9bn by 2022
Assume that DJI sold 100% of its US$1 bil 2015 sales to USA, we then discount all other brands like Parrot or 3DR or whatever to zero, since DJI seems to own 70% of the global market.
At US$1 bil sales in USA, US government will not get more than US$200 mil from its sales tax and income tax of US retailers. US$200 mil is of no value to US government if ever a hobby/consumer drone is deemed as potential terrorist tool and security need to be beefed-up or whatever physical or moral damage that product can do in terms of US citizen public safety. US Gov will need more than US$200 mil to enforce extra security per year if ever hobby drone threat gets into their SOP.
So what we best do is enjoy our hobby drones while we still can legally.
I also hope US government will help 3DR at some point and we who likes Solo will support 3DR more & more and Americans buy more 3DR products when they can, instead of other brands. Clapping needs two hands, 3DR can't do it alone. The Japanese in the 80-90s support home made brands to such a point you won't believe and 80-90s were Japan golden era globally too, demolishing US and European TV brands during those periods.
However basic mathematics applies, and since profits finance operation and innovation, 3DR is now very fragile at US$1,000 Solo with gimbal IF for consumer market.
If US dealer discount assuming is 20% from Solo previous $1,400 with gimbal, we get $1,050
Now its US$800 into 3DR pocket at $1,000 retail with gimbal if at 20% discount. If to distributors outside USA, probably 25% discount minimum, otherwise distributors can't work and even so 5% is not workable, probably dealers get 15% off only outside USA and distributors get 10%, being 25% off = $750 into 3DR pocket.
Now the commercial side of 3DR. Site Scan.
Site Scan™ (Hardware + Annual License) - 3DR
Hardware US$3,249 , licence US$299 x 12 months. Total US$6,837
The extra true hardware, not software is Sony Xperia Tablet Z4* ( *it does not look as a 10" Z4 width wise because it should be wider than the controller, but also aspect ratio wise does not look like an 8" Xperia Z3
) which let we assume worth US$600, GoPro Black at US$500 and the bag at US$137, spare pros + 64GB SD card assume at US$70 = balance US$1,840 rounded.That means approx US$840 is the cost Apps itself in the Sony tablet, US$1K for Solo + gimbal.
And then US$299 per month income for 3DR Licence.
Software is beautiful, it cost next to nothing to reproduce a copy for it but making one is expensive.
Microsoft, Oracle, SAP and even Apple with its iOS is what generate revenue and its something one can not copy easily without getting sued. Hardware, unless you have custom propretiary chip, its easier to reverse engineer.
So a commercial Solo Site Scan if any 1 customer buy from 3DR, assuming US$840 is the initial software cost of Site Scan, per month it generates US$299 licence fee. Its like selling a Solo, with profit of $299 every month for 12 months non-stop to 1 person.
Awesome.US$299 is near 1/3rd of a Solo price of US$1,000 today with gimbal.
Its kinda fit the 33/33/33% typical restaurant business calculation for food, not drinks : 33% cost of goods + 33% profit + 33% operational cost.
So per year 3DR only need to sell 1/12th by QTY to commercial sector to get 100% same profit to consumer sector. By 2nd year if the owner of Site Scan Solo Kit extend its licence, its another beautiful income. By 3rd year its even more beautiful for 3DR, with income coming from 1st & 2nd year Site Scan owner.
Looking at all these commercial Site Scan for Solo , the positive side of things is, SOLO consumers sales won't be killed as it is the same Solo we all owned that they use for Site Scan Kit, spare parts will be available too. However, will 3DR expand/improve the Smart Shots capability for us consumers ? That is the biggest question. Will 3DR develop other technology like collision avoidance or those height calculating dual cameras options for indoor use, for us hobby dudes ?
As far as fimware update for Solo or Pixhawk we may or may not get one as good as the Site Scan Kit version, maybe.
Looking at all these, I am sure 3 more years is easy for Solo drone to still exist for us consumer sector.
3DR can't sell Site Scan and kill it so soon. Commercial users are not gadget crazy like us consumers sector, they stick to what works and cameras do get smaller and smaller, so payload capability of Solo may still be suitable for let say version 2 Site Scan Kits.
Commercial sectors are also a better customers in the way that they respect and maintain their gear as a tool to generate income. They don't do crazy things consumers do. They spend money to generate more money, not like us spending money for pure fun. They would be a more responsible drone operator for sure.
I think 3DR understood that in near future, consumer drones will be much more and more restricted in all countries wordl wide. This will surely happen, its just a matter of WHEN. Some terrorist sending 1 kg bomb payload to a crowd during an outdoor concert or sending a drone into commercial jet engine during take off can happen in the future and that may trigger the death of consumer drones, but commercial drone heavily regulated will stay.
One unique story here. Singapore banned chewing gum. Read on to why they banned it.
Chewing gum ban in Singapore - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a good move and save lots of $$.
Any country in the world will ban any product as when they see fit, if there is a good reason for it.
Consumer drones will be one of them , my guess is within the next 2-4 years most countries regulations will not favor hobby/consumer drones.
USA is probably the world biggest consumers of hobby/consumers drone, as with most fun or gadget stuff in life, USA is world biggest consumers, hell its like the world biggest consumers for everything* ( *including drugs ) due to its wealth and high income per capita.
A goverment is like any business enterprise, they will calculate tax revenue from "X" product vs cost of liability or security enforcement for it and if this product falls under non-necessity or not.
Let's do the math :
AviTrader – Worldwide drone sales could reach US$36.9bn by 2022
Assume that DJI sold 100% of its US$1 bil 2015 sales to USA, we then discount all other brands like Parrot or 3DR or whatever to zero, since DJI seems to own 70% of the global market.
At US$1 bil sales in USA, US government will not get more than US$200 mil from its sales tax and income tax of US retailers. US$200 mil is of no value to US government if ever a hobby/consumer drone is deemed as potential terrorist tool and security need to be beefed-up or whatever physical or moral damage that product can do in terms of US citizen public safety. US Gov will need more than US$200 mil to enforce extra security per year if ever hobby drone threat gets into their SOP.
So what we best do is enjoy our hobby drones while we still can legally.
If we look at the big picture for the RC biz, most if not all components are sourced out of China. Just using motors as the example. Do you think T-Motors would jeopardize any relationship they have with DJI to fulfill a competing manufactures product? There is no other source for large production BL motors other than China, in the big picture.
In my opinion 3DR has been battling an uphill battle with a country and DJI. Saying DJI doesn't influence their market of manufactures is just naïve thinking. DJI is producing the first world wide brand from China. Don't you think their government gives them the nod when they need help...
And to think, we have Collin Guinn to thank for DJI initial success. He was the face of DJI in the market. Prior to buying my P2V+, I thought DJI was an American company...shame on me.
thats crazy. so dji doesn't mention that they will forcibly land your phantom or inspire against the pilots will if you fly into a NFZ? so if that is over the ocean or a group of people DJI is like FU buy another? wow. just wow.
Well, business is business.
Consumers drone market is now majority controlled by DJI, DJI can throw US$100mil down the drain and still smile and they won't collapse.
If 3DR is indeed only $99mil funded :
"The company is one of the better funded among a growing number of drone startups, and has raised a total of $99 million in four funding rounds. "
That is a small amount of funds to battle DJI. DJI knows how much it cost to make a Solo, all they got to do is sell Phantom 3 Adv and Pro at a price point where 3DR can't make profit on Solo if 3DR is to do a price cut ........., then bye bye majority of consumer market profit for Solo.
What separate Solo from DJI Phantom is , Solo is made from zero for movie making platform and at the hands of professionals it is a powerful low cost tool with fast learning curve.
Me being a dumb drone pilot is happy Solo exist to speed up my goal, which is hopefully take better aerial footage while needing the least piloting skill
DJI on the other hand target every sector, and I still believe that the flying-for-fun sector is still way much bigger than true video/movie making crowd. One can take great aerial footage but not everyone can make a beautiful 3 minute video worth watching while it does include some portion being aerial footage and land footage. Aerial footage looks cool and awesome in 2012 but it is boring today, unless it has really spectacular content to watch.
The more spectacular the aerial video one manage to capture, the more one EVENTUALLY will not want to share publicly, this is common sense, it takes $$ and time to capture those difficult or spectacular shoots, so videos like this goes into commercial sector as stock footage or a paid job. Someting to get payback or it is the intention of the videographer that commercial sector is what they are after. These specialized artists probably are not even 5% of a Solo or DJI market. How would a drone company survive selling a drone to such niche market segment if the price point is consumer price at US$1,000 with gimbal ( no camera ) ?
From business point of view, DJI would be more efficient I would guess.
Not only it has economy of scale, it is based in China and a Chinese company and production of all these drones thingy is plenty in China, not Mexico. The speed of developing something new or making something new at production stage, a US based company can't compete with the Chinese with production backyard in China or even a US company with supporting Chinese suppliers involved. Solo label stated MADE IN CHINA.
Whatever DJI buy at 100,000 pcs from their suppliers, 3DR can only buy at best 7,000 pcs or less, that alone means DJI pay less per unit and will be prioritized by suplliers to actually make the product for DJI first and other brands can wait in line. Probably that is what happen to Solo's delayed gimbal...money and quantity talks. Perhaps DJI has enough sales volume to make its own mini factory for their gimbal.
DJI cut price is not because Solo sold "plenty" I don't believe that, what DJI did is the same as what Ronald Reagan did to Russia during the cold war........ tell the Saudis to reduce oil price and see who got more money in the end. That Reagan move made Russia see Chapter 11.
Cut 3DR Solo's profit by slashing drone benchmark price, the Phantom 3 Professional at US$999 where one get free 4K camera + gimbal + superior range Lightbridge and 3DR sales will eventually shrink. As it is now 3DR Solo is like US$400 more money apple to apple compared to P3 Pro due to no freebie 4K camera on Solo, but it is not a pure US$400 more expensive, because Solo Smart Shots capability has $$ value. Since 95% of drone consumers are not video artists, most will go for P3 Pro probably. This is what DJI hope to happen and it will happen.
The difficult part for 3DR in this drone business is , 3DR need to fight a rich Chinese giant, established, started in 2006 where 3DR started in 2007??. The way things usually work ( except iPhone for the time being ) , developed country brands slowly eroded by developing country brands where labor rate is much lower and labor union has no "teeth/power". Whatever extra cost a brand have to endure being manufactured in a developed nation is extra cost, another downside. Now its the opposite, a developed nation brand trying to fight a product coming from a developing nation on a global market. It is tough.
If consumer drones are super high tech like aircraft or space vehicle, US company may win, but if so..... the price point will be so high and there won't be affordable high tech consumer drones market in the first place...LOL.
I do not want 3DR to stop its consumers market drone, I like 3DR innovation and open system.
However in the end money talks. How can a business survive where retail is projected at US$1400* ( *less dealer margin) calculated as revenue for a Solo with gimbal and suddenly slashed to US$1,000 ?
US$400 gone is a lot of money for a Solo price bracket, it is probably above the profit margin 3DR has for Solo. Adding insult to injury, Phantom 3 Adv & Pro already accumulated sales and profits for like 8 months or so. DJI timed the price cut just right, which is when the Solo gimbal actually in proper production volume and proven to be a decently good product.
My 2 cents
Hi...well thought out and documented...I worked for AT&T International in 90's and heard the stories about Huawei stealing company patents; and wind power giants in Europe doing the same and really sloppy manufacturing and QC...making me surprised of DJI's success. I've worked with Chinese management and engineers...that's why I bought American! It's not that I'm "Chinese Bashing"; its just my personal experience. When you mention the success of the iPhone, its the "coolness" generated from really smart (American) design and engineering, NOT to forget the marketing effort. That is also what you (and I) like about our pals at 3DR. So, this is the path 3DR must continue to pursue and broaden their market sectors where DJI is weak and bundling with other known manufacturers. It's not only the "newest technology" that makes profit; its also how one can "assemble" existing koolio technology into new, wanted uses and services.
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It's too bad. Solo is basically 3DRs first consumer model (second if you count the Iris, but thats debatable). Meanwhile DJI is on their 6th version if you count up all the iterations of the Phantom.
I feel like the Solo is a great first effort. Too bad the Company lost patience (or its investors did). I think with a few more iterations, they really could have made some inroads in terms of market share.
I feel like the Solo is a great first effort. Too bad the Company lost patience (or its investors did). I think with a few more iterations, they really could have made some inroads in terms of market share.
does this mean they'll stop selling solo in retail channels? and only carry parts on their websites?
i agree that we likely wont see any more 3rd party add-ons for the consumer version after NAB given this news...who in their right mind would wanna develop for the consumer version if the company itself is abadoning R&D in the consumer sector.
i agree that we likely wont see any more 3rd party add-ons for the consumer version after NAB given this news...who in their right mind would wanna develop for the consumer version if the company itself is abadoning R&D in the consumer sector.
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