Solo Might Be Dead

Richard · Aug 20, 2015

Earldgrayjr said:
First.... The open source isn't "supposedly". It is in practice.... All you have to do is wander over to GitHub and you can see the community at work.

As for current quad consumers not "swapping out parts" I beg to differ. That is how 3DR has built their business from the beginning. Without that fact, 3DR would not exist. The average quad owner to date absolutely is swapping out parts..... But that wasn't my actual point.

And it isn't blind enthusiamsm either. It is seasoned reasoning. I have been around technology a LONG time and have seen a LOT of products/systems/technology come and go. As I stated earlier in another post, invariably, the "best" technology is the one that survives, and the one that survives is the technology that is most widespread. Simple as that.

The point I was making is that I predict an explosion of both 3rd party "upgrades" to Solo (I know of several in the works right now) as well as MANY different quads being designed that are based on the underlying technology that is in Solo (PixHawk and Ardupilot)

https://www.kickstarter.com/project...e-the-portable-rugged-totally-different-small

And that will certainly increase. That simply won't happen with DJI and an API. That makes the technology more widespread. That makes it a safer bet in the long term.

My opinion is not about being a fanboy of the Solo product, or even of 3DR (although I like their service better also). And I get that the term "open source" doesn't ring any bells with the average consumer.

This battle however has been played out over and over for at least the last 40 years, in everything from communication standards to PC's, to TV's, to Phones. I have sat on the standards committees. I have incorporated standards. I have seen how open source plays out, and it doesn't matter if the average consumer "gets it" or not. Simply put, DJI is Apple (only with bad service) and 3DR is Android...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...vCPuLLX54IitSU7zvj2LQEeslf6C2qyCEpq2p8_zVrHeQ

There is NO reason in my mind to believe this will be any different, and in fact there is considerable evidence (more than in many markets) that this will play out rather quickly as compared to past markets as it matures. If I am right, DJI will be in a "race to the bottom" of price, and will eventually get "eaten by ants" as they say....when many new companies come out with drones...

Time will tell...

Funny I am a average joe consumer! I bought solo for the photo and video use aspect in the arborculture world. I really could careless about modifying my solo. Well until I finish my degree in Unmanned Systems through Embry-Riddle. At this point though I am just getting my feet wet and wish there was someone closer to me that was deep in the UAV recreation side of it to learn from. Some of the stuff you guys talk about go way over my head where I need a bridge and a step stool to grasp it. I did understand your analogy though with Apple and Android.

erikgraham · Aug 20, 2015

Axidrain said:
so was lightbridge when it first came out. now its built in to the new phantoms and inspire.

in any case, the future of commercial drones is looking pretty interesting. Oh and i just found out about this new drone http://en.xirodrone.com/. actually looks pretty good. more competition is alwasy good for us

Most likely another drone based on pixhawk and a custom arducopter branch. These usually are.

Axidrain · Aug 20, 2015

DodgeP said:
I have no idea what your response means. Lightbridge was solely an add on until recently. The initial investment for Matrice looks to intro itself at 5k. That's a far cry from the 3k cost of an Inspire 1 (if you don't plan on buying any batteries).

That's exactly what i meant. Lightbridge in itself costs more than the phantom 3 pro. but now we're getting it already built in to the quad. Matrice is introducing new tech and is strictly a developer platform right now. nothing out there has what its offering at the moment. And based on DJI's track record, we can expect these things to be built in to their future products.

Earldgrayjr · Aug 20, 2015

Winston said:
I appreciate your expertise. I certainly don't have nor do I have a favorite horse in this race. But I have a couple questions that I ask without a critical spin to them. If your comparison is between Apple and

I truly respect your expertise which I don't have but I have a couple comments regarding your conclusions as it pertains to the quad market(s). Is there perhaps another explanation for the market share that the Android has besides the underlying technology? Apple has hardly been in a "race to the bottom" so there are obvious drivers to success besides a singular attention to just one type of technology. The Sprite is more than just a different technology, it is a different airframe and totally different application which may be amazingly successful or fail for reasons other than the underlying technology. What I am suggesting is that I don't know that just the underlying technology is going to push DJI (or any quad mfg) too be "eaten by ants". Obviously, there are examples of technology that eliminated competition, but there are also competing technologies that have co-existed such as in TV screen displays. 3DR may have a better technology (I really am not judging that since I don't have that ability) but if they base their product designs, such as a one camera option that the consumer has to buy because they don't have the "required" camera for the airframe or the gimbal is not included in the base price, as measured by the consumer, the price vs features is different. I just think that the consumer/hobbyist market has many more drivers that effect success than industrial or even consumer professional markets.

Just saw this so sorry for the delay in response... I used Android as an example, but there are literally thousands of examples. Apple/Android is just one people know. Each example is not exact, as they all have their nuances.

As I said, the Apple analogy to DJI completely falls apart when it comes to service. Apple knows you have to be the top of the food chain to be in that space. To do that you must have the best customer experience. DJI doesn't get that. Part of it is cultural (and very much my opinion) but in my experience, Chinese led companies typically don't get the "best" idea, and rather work toward the "cheapest" at spec.

The sprite was another example, but not of what you think. It uses the same brains as Solo. Being a kickstarter (along with about a hundred other drone ideas) it obviously may not make it, but the point is that the majority of the new drones that come out will use PixHawk, and why not? It is tested technology that can be programmed to taste, and is just one less thing to deal with for a new drone, and company. They use GoPro for the same reason. That is very unlikely to happen with DJI and NAZA, or the caneras, as they are closed and proprietary, and therefore tied to DJI products in a monolithic way.

That is the sense that DJI is like Apple and IOS as opposed to Google and Android. Don't get me wrong, DJI has been very successful. Just think about it though. They must succeed on every drone. 3DR doesn't need them all to succeed. Not even their own. Just one.

As I said, no analogy is going to be perfect. Another one would be Apple (Mac) to Intel PC's. Intel sells to many PC makers, with many variants. Apple only sells to Mac users.. Apple also originally had their own proprietary processor (Power PC) but was eventually forced to rework the OS to operate on Intel. THAT is why the PixHawk is important...

As the old saying goes... "the problem with the future is that it hasn't happened yet" and I completely agree that this hasn't played out. I really have seen this movie dozens of times though, from communications, to TV's to building controls. Technologies always work toward standardization, and given this one is already at the open source stage, I bet it will move quickly. I stand by what I said, and think unless DJI makes some huge left turn, they will be the leader in the race to the bottom in this class of products..

In any case, time will tell, and it will be interesting to watch

Richard · Aug 20, 2015

Axidrain said:
so was lightbridge when it first came out. now its built in to the new phantoms and inspire.

in any case, the future of commercial drones is looking pretty interesting. Oh and i just found out about this new drone http://en.xirodrone.com/. actually looks pretty good. more competition is alwasy good for us

Kinda looks like a 3DR similar website! Wonder if they ripped off 3DR in China for the gimbal. this whole think smells of a stolen design.

Steven Ackerman · Aug 21, 2015

One of the many hazards of having your product made in China... been there, done that.

DodgeP · Aug 21, 2015

I don't think any of it resembles Solo, except for the fact that bird is black and the site uses hints of green.

Earldgrayjr · Aug 21, 2015

Richard said:
Funny I am a average joe consumer! I bought solo for the photo and video use aspect in the arborculture world. I really could careless about modifying my solo. Well until I finish my degree in Unmanned Systems through Embry-Riddle. At this point though I am just getting my feet wet and wish there was someone closer to me that was deep in the UAV recreation side of it to learn from. Some of the stuff you guys talk about go way over my head where I need a bridge and a step stool to grasp it. I did understand your analogy though with Apple and Android.

Richard,
What part of the world are you in? Who knows, maybe someone is close by

erikgraham · Aug 21, 2015

Richard said:
Kinda looks like a 3DR similar website! Wonder if they ripped off 3DR in China for the gimbal. this whole think smells of a stolen design.

Nah. Not stolen. It can't be. Everything is open source software and open source hardware. So nothing to steal. That's why so many drones are based on 3DRs arducopter and PixHawk and earlier flight controllers.

Richard · Aug 21, 2015

Earldgrayjr said:
Richard,
What part of the world are you in? Who knows, maybe someone is close by

Egg Harbor Township, NJ

Earldgrayjr · Aug 21, 2015

Richard said:
Egg Harbor Township, NJ

Lake Stevens, Washington.

Somebody here may be nearby though....

Lamda · Aug 21, 2015

Richard said:
Egg Harbor Township, NJ

I went on to meetup.com and found a local drone flying group. I have yet to go meet with them - there's a group fly session tomorrow, so I'll see if I can make it out. They had an activity underway when I joined - I was too late for that, all spots filled. They teamed up with a local 3D Printer maker and allowed people to make their own mini RC quad, complete with electronics. Nothing like the Solo of course, but fun if you are interested in building/tinkering.