Solo Might Be Dead

Earldgrayjr · Aug 8, 2015

DodgeP said:
Earl,

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the supposedly open source of 3DR and to most consumers open or closed source means nothing. The average consumer isn't swapping out parts on a quad, I can promise you that. I think the update will be released when or before the new P3S hits shelves.

First.... The open source isn't "supposedly". It is in practice.... All you have to do is wander over to GitHub and you can see the community at work.

As for current quad consumers not "swapping out parts" I beg to differ. That is how 3DR has built their business from the beginning. Without that fact, 3DR would not exist. The average quad owner to date absolutely is swapping out parts..... But that wasn't my actual point.

And it isn't blind enthusiamsm either. It is seasoned reasoning. I have been around technology a LONG time and have seen a LOT of products/systems/technology come and go. As I stated earlier in another post, invariably, the "best" technology is the one that survives, and the one that survives is the technology that is most widespread. Simple as that.

The point I was making is that I predict an explosion of both 3rd party "upgrades" to Solo (I know of several in the works right now) as well as MANY different quads being designed that are based on the underlying technology that is in Solo (PixHawk and Ardupilot)

https://www.kickstarter.com/project...e-the-portable-rugged-totally-different-small

And that will certainly increase. That simply won't happen with DJI and an API. That makes the technology more widespread. That makes it a safer bet in the long term.

My opinion is not about being a fanboy of the Solo product, or even of 3DR (although I like their service better also). And I get that the term "open source" doesn't ring any bells with the average consumer.

This battle however has been played out over and over for at least the last 40 years, in everything from communication standards to PC's, to TV's, to Phones. I have sat on the standards committees. I have incorporated standards. I have seen how open source plays out, and it doesn't matter if the average consumer "gets it" or not. Simply put, DJI is Apple (only with bad service) and 3DR is Android...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...vCPuLLX54IitSU7zvj2LQEeslf6C2qyCEpq2p8_zVrHeQ

There is NO reason in my mind to believe this will be any different, and in fact there is considerable evidence (more than in many markets) that this will play out rather quickly as compared to past markets as it matures. If I am right, DJI will be in a "race to the bottom" of price, and will eventually get "eaten by ants" as they say....when many new companies come out with drones...

Time will tell...

Winston · Aug 8, 2015

Earldgrayjr said:
First.... The open source isn't "supposedly". It is in practice.... All you have to do is wander over to GitHub and you can see the community at work.

As for current quad consumers not "swapping out parts" I beg to differ. That is how 3DR has built their business from the beginning. Without that fact, 3DR would not exist. The average quad owner to date absolutely is swapping out parts..... But that wasn't my actual point.

And it isn't blind enthusiamsm either. It is seasoned reasoning. I have been around technology a LONG time and have seen a LOT of products/systems/technology come and go. As I stated earlier in another post, invariably, the "best" technology is the one that survives, and the one that survives is the technology that is most widespread. Simple as that.

The point I was making is that I predict an explosion of both 3rd party "upgrades" to Solo (I know of several in the works right now) as well as MANY different quads being designed that are based on the underlying technology that is in Solo (PixHawk and Ardupilot)

https://www.kickstarter.com/project...e-the-portable-rugged-totally-different-small

And that will certainly increase. That simply won't happen with DJI and an API. That makes the technology more widespread. That makes it a safer bet in the long term.

My opinion is not about being a fanboy of the Solo product, or even of 3DR (although I like their service better also). And I get that the term "open source" doesn't ring any bells with the average consumer.

This battle however has been played out over and over for at least the last 40 years, in everything from communication standards to PC's, to TV's, to Phones. I have sat on the standards committees. I have incorporated standards. I have seen how open source plays out, and it doesn't matter if the average consumer "gets it" or not. Simply put, DJI is Apple (only with bad service) and 3DR is Android...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...vCPuLLX54IitSU7zvj2LQEeslf6C2qyCEpq2p8_zVrHeQ

There is NO reason in my mind to believe this will be any different, and in fact there is considerable evidence (more than in many markets) that this will play out rather quickly as compared to past markets as it matures. If I am right, DJI will be in a "race to the bottom" of price, and will eventually get "eaten by ants" as they say....when many new companies come out with drones...

Time will tell...

I appreciate your expertise. I certainly don't have nor do I have a favorite horse in this race. But I have a couple questions that I ask without a critical spin to them. If your comparison is between Apple and

Earldgrayjr said:
First.... The open source isn't "supposedly". It is in practice.... All you have to do is wander over to GitHub and you can see the community at work.

As for current quad consumers not "swapping out parts" I beg to differ. That is how 3DR has built their business from the beginning. Without that fact, 3DR would not exist. The average quad owner to date absolutely is swapping out parts..... But that wasn't my actual point.

And it isn't blind enthusiamsm either. It is seasoned reasoning. I have been around technology a LONG time and have seen a LOT of products/systems/technology come and go. As I stated earlier in another post, invariably, the "best" technology is the one that survives, and the one that survives is the technology that is most widespread. Simple as that.

The point I was making is that I predict an explosion of both 3rd party "upgrades" to Solo (I know of several in the works right now) as well as MANY different quads being designed that are based on the underlying technology that is in Solo (PixHawk and Ardupilot)

https://www.kickstarter.com/project...e-the-portable-rugged-totally-different-small

And that will certainly increase. That simply won't happen with DJI and an API. That makes the technology more widespread. That makes it a safer bet in the long term.

My opinion is not about being a fanboy of the Solo product, or even of 3DR (although I like their service better also). And I get that the term "open source" doesn't ring any bells with the average consumer.

This battle however has been played out over and over for at least the last 40 years, in everything from communication standards to PC's, to TV's, to Phones. I have sat on the standards committees. I have incorporated standards. I have seen how open source plays out, and it doesn't matter if the average consumer "gets it" or not. Simply put, DJI is Apple (only with bad service) and 3DR is Android...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...vCPuLLX54IitSU7zvj2LQEeslf6C2qyCEpq2p8_zVrHeQ

There is NO reason in my mind to believe this will be any different, and in fact there is considerable evidence (more than in many markets) that this will play out rather quickly as compared to past markets as it matures. If I am right, DJI will be in a "race to the bottom" of price, and will eventually get "eaten by ants" as they say....when many new companies come out with drones...

Time will tell...

I truly respect your expertise which I don't have but I have a couple comments regarding your conclusions as it pertains to the quad market(s). Is there perhaps another explanation for the market share that the Android has besides the underlying technology? Apple has hardly been in a "race to the bottom" so there are obvious drivers to success besides a singular attention to just one type of technology. The Sprite is more than just a different technology, it is a different airframe and totally different application which may be amazingly successful or fail for reasons other than the underlying technology. What I am suggesting is that I don't know that just the underlying technology is going to push DJI (or any quad mfg) too be "eaten by ants". Obviously, there are examples of technology that eliminated competition, but there are also competing technologies that have co-existed such as in TV screen displays. 3DR may have a better technology (I really am not judging that since I don't have that ability) but if they base their product designs, such as a one camera option that the consumer has to buy because they don't have the "required" camera for the airframe or the gimbal is not included in the base price, as measured by the consumer, the price vs features is different. I just think that the consumer/hobbyist market has many more drivers that effect success than industrial or even consumer professional markets.

Rodney Johnson · Aug 8, 2015

rrmccabe said:
I have no doubt it started out that way and I would not blame him as Wang is a dick.

But you can bet that Wang will do everything he can to take 3DR out.

As far as all they have as a counter attack, they are smarter than that. 3DR is playing catchup and will for a while.

(Wang) is a dick?
Isn't Dick another name for Wang.. Yup
It fits no matter how it's put into a sentence.

rrmccabe · Aug 8, 2015

Yea I think so. He really is an arrogant ass. Don't enjoy buying his stuff but like the polished interface they provide. Wish the build your own pixhawk stuff had a self program/configure interface a person could use to finish off their own project.

But yup Wang is dick. His forbes interview was enlightening.

ken nielsen · Aug 8, 2015

FlexFanatic said:
So with that kind of thought, do you think more people purchased a Phantom Advanced or a Phantom 3 Professional?

Because 3DR lied to me about my pre order after 8 weeks waiting I cancelled my Solo and purchased the new Yuneec 4k from Peter at Aces Deals and love it..my P2V+ has been on the shelf for the past month as I'm flying with confidence my Q5004k. No maps or way points yet but they are coming along with some other neat features. When they do I'll bet they work first time.

FlexFanatic · Aug 8, 2015

ken nielsen said:
Because 3DR lied to me about my pre order after 8 weeks waiting I cancelled my Solo and purchased the new Yuneec 4k from Peter at Aces Deals and love it..my P2V+ has been on the shelf for the past month as I'm flying with confidence my Q5004k. No maps or way points yet but they are coming along with some other neat features. When they do I'll bet they work first time.

Not sure how this relates to my post you quoted but I like the look and size of the Q500 series and I still have it on my list as a RTF bird. I do wish they would add an option for video output (HDMI) from the controller though.

DodgeP · Aug 8, 2015

Earldgrayjr said:
First.... The open source isn't "supposedly". It is in practice.... All you have to do is wander over to GitHub and you can see the community at work.

As for current quad consumers not "swapping out parts" I beg to differ. That is how 3DR has built their business from the beginning. Without that fact, 3DR would not exist. The average quad owner to date absolutely is swapping out parts..... But that wasn't my actual point.

And it isn't blind enthusiamsm either. It is seasoned reasoning. I have been around technology a LONG time and have seen a LOT of products/systems/technology come and go. As I stated earlier in another post, invariably, the "best" technology is the one that survives, and the one that survives is the technology that is most widespread. Simple as that.

The point I was making is that I predict an explosion of both 3rd party "upgrades" to Solo (I know of several in the works right now) as well as MANY different quads being designed that are based on the underlying technology that is in Solo (PixHawk and Ardupilot)

https://www.kickstarter.com/project...e-the-portable-rugged-totally-different-small

And that will certainly increase. That simply won't happen with DJI and an API. That makes the technology more widespread. That makes it a safer bet in the long term.

My opinion is not about being a fanboy of the Solo product, or even of 3DR (although I like their service better also). And I get that the term "open source" doesn't ring any bells with the average consumer.

This battle however has been played out over and over for at least the last 40 years, in everything from communication standards to PC's, to TV's, to Phones. I have sat on the standards committees. I have incorporated standards. I have seen how open source plays out, and it doesn't matter if the average consumer "gets it" or not. Simply put, DJI is Apple (only with bad service) and 3DR is Android...

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/...vCPuLLX54IitSU7zvj2LQEeslf6C2qyCEpq2p8_zVrHeQ

There is NO reason in my mind to believe this will be any different, and in fact there is considerable evidence (more than in many markets) that this will play out rather quickly as compared to past markets as it matures. If I am right, DJI will be in a "race to the bottom" of price, and will eventually get "eaten by ants" as they say....when many new companies come out with drones...

Time will tell...

I have a lot of differing opinions with a lot of what you have to say and there's a difference between consumer, prosumer and professional. Solo is directly aimed at the consumer market. The typical consumer is not swapping out parts. If they were, most technology would never advance because not enough people would buy it, they would simply upgrade and update.

The "BEST" technology and the MOST WIDESPREAD technology are NOT the same, they are rarely ever one in the same.

No one called you a fanboy, you've brought that terminology from another site or forum, I could care less who you're routing for. Your needs and my needs are most likely very different. Apple products are jailbroken all the time, everything, iphone, apple tv, etc. The difference is, most consumers don't care to jailbreak their apple products and when the new apple device hits the market they run out and get it and just like Apple, when the new DJI product hits the market, they are selling it to existing customers and probably aren't converting very many new customers from other companies.

There is nothing holding back 3rd party vendors from producing products for Solo, the base bird has been on the market for a while now. What are they waiting for? The code is there, the hardware is there. There's no guess work to be done. No third party vendors are willing to stick their neck out for a technology that may not make it.

When your main marketing campaign conveys the message that it's so easy that a monkey can fly it, you're marketing to no one but the average consumer. The average consumer will not back an incomplete product, regardless how cool it "looks". Not even prosumers are sticking it out with Solo and because of that, combined with the very forgiving return policy the bottom line has to be taking a hit.

3DR has a lot of ground to make up. Even if the gimbal hits the market and it's flawless, they still have a lot of ground to make up. If GoPro releases a drone next year, I would bet money that the software will be on point - simply for the fact that there will be no room for error because of the people who will most likely use it and guess what that means for Solo and their close relationship with GoPro. I doubt very seriously that GP will continue to work closely with direct competition. You've been in the game for 40yrs. You know exactly what that means.

Once 3DR has to put its own camera on the drone, it might as well be a DJI product. I have a feeling the return policy will go away once the Solo actually catches on, if it catches on and that great customer service will also go away.

ken nielsen · Aug 8, 2015

FlexFanatic said:
Not sure how this relates to my post you quoted but I like the look and size of the Q500 series and I still have it on my list as a RTF bird. I do wish they would add an option for video output (HDMI) from the controller though.

Though not a Phantom, I was just relating my alternate decision to the Solo following my May/June disappointment. I will say this, I have parked my P2V+ since I've gotten the Q4k. And yes I wish the controller, which I'll say the display is incredible as is, I too wish it had an HDMI output for 2nd monitor. Lots of my clients like to see in real time what the camera is seeing, though it's easy to connect a second phone or tab via the Q4k generated wifi. Have done that several times, it does after a period of time suck up some of the wifi signal and can cause some video lag to the monitors but has no effect on the aircraft's performance. I'm hearing that Yuneec is very happy with this new Q500 platform and is going to improve on it, even while coming out with other more expensive aircraft. Lets hope that's not just rumor

SKP · Aug 9, 2015

DodgeP said:
While on the Inspire1 Pilots site I saw the advert for the new P3 Standard (http://www.dji.com/product/phantom-3-standard/feature) .. Scrolled to the bottom of the page and saw POI (Orbit), Waypoints, Follow Me to be coming soon. I think this will cause problems if 3DR doesn't tighten up the Solo line really quickly.

Very true, hopefully they will offer better and way advanced good stuff to offset competition

erikgraham · Aug 12, 2015

I think the problem with the P3 and the Inspire1 is they lack the onboard processing power. For example they may be able to copy the basic smart shots, but without the logarithmic easing. They may be able to tick the boxes, but the quality won't be there. That's why they've been dragging their feet for so long. Now that the Solo is out, they *might* push something out, but they'll need to release a new platform with more processing power to truly match. As more smart shots are added - and they are coming (just look at github) - the P3 and Inspire1 will struggle to keep up. The next line of attack will be to disparage smart shots themselves.

Ian [P13] · Aug 12, 2015

My thought on the Solo processing power, is 3DR have been testing image recognition for tracking in the past, I do wonder if the SoloLink has the power for that, even at a basic level, now if so that could take smart shots even further... Either way that's the direction we're going...

Skip to 52 seconds...

erikgraham · Aug 12, 2015

I think a lot of this will just go away with time. Most of these DJI guys will come around.

Even if they don't buy their drones direct from 3DR, they will all be using 3DR technology whether they realize it or not. Pretty much every drone that you read or hear about are built using 3DR hardware components and some kind of ardupilot branch - excluding DJI products of course.

Someone brought up the GoPro drone. Guess where that tech will come from? 3DR. The comparison to Android is a good one. Comparing DJI to Apple isn't quite as valid. It doesn't give Apple enough credit.

SoloBob · Aug 12, 2015

erikgraham said:
I think the problem with the P3 and the Inspire1 is they lack the onboard processing power. For example they may be able to copy the basic smart shots, but without the logarithmic easing. They may be able to tick the boxes, but the quality won't be there. That's why they've been dragging their feet for so long. Now that the Solo is out, they *might* push something out, but they'll need to release a new platform with more processing power to truly match. As more smart shots are added - and they are coming (just look at github) - the P3 and Inspire1 will struggle to keep up. The next line of attack will be to disparage smart shots themselves.

That assumption has absolutely no technical foundation. There are almost 20 different processors in the P3/I1, some of them are very powerful. This "logarithmic easing" you're talking about is a low frequency operation that can be done at 10hz and could be performed by any 8 bit microcontroller. The reason DJI doesn't have these features is the same as the reason they don't have waypoints: liability and separating the consumer drones from the professional drones.

The reason 3DR used the Linux computers in the Solo is that they're much easier to script than microcontrollers. They run Python scripts doing the smart shots, which are far from being efficient - they don't need to, its not computing intensive at all. The Linux computers used in the Solo are simple sub-$20 items. The cost of producing a Phantom 3 is much, much higher.

Even if they don't buy their drones direct from 3DR, they will all be using 3DR technology whether they realize it or not. Pretty much every drone that you read or hear about are built using 3DR hardware components and some kind of ardupilot branch - excluding DJI products of course.

There is no such thing as "3DR technology". 3DR is just a company commercializing and sponsoring open source work, but the work itself is community driven and OWNED. 3DR doesn't own Pixhawk or APM, its all GPL and in the public domain. 3DR is as legitimate of a user of this technology as Walkera or anyone else utilizing this codebase.
Compared to DJI, 3DR has very little special IP of its own.

erikgraham · Aug 12, 2015

SoloBob said:
That assumption has absolutely no technical foundation. There are almost 20 different processors in the P3/I1, some of them are very powerful. This "logarithmic easing" you're talking about is a low frequency operation that can be done at 10hz and could be performed by any 8 bit microcontroller. The reason DJI doesn't have these features is the same as the reason they don't have waypoints: liability and separating the consumer drones from the professional drones.

The reason 3DR used the Linux computers in the Solo is that they're much easier to script than microcontrollers. They run Python scripts doing the smart shots, which are far from being efficient - they don't need to, its not computing intensive at all. The Linux computers used in the Solo are simple sub-$20 items. The cost of producing a Phantom 3 is much, much higher.

There is no such thing as "3DR technology". 3DR is just a company commercializing and sponsoring open source work, but the work itself is community driven and OWNED. 3DR doesn't own Pixhawk or APM, its all GPL and in the public domain. 3DR is as legitimate of a user of this technology as Walkera or anyone else utilizing this codebase.
Compared to DJI, 3DR has very little special IP of its own.

Your off base here, particularly with the bit about liability and separating consumer from professional drones, but also with respect to the embedded CPUs. As to "3DR technology" and IP, your basically vehemently agreeing with me. I think every one here understands open source and who owns the IP. Nonetheless, 3DR does indeed control the main branch. Furthermore, the company benefits financially from its popularity because they sell those components. Yes they can roll their own, but they don't.

RichWest · Aug 20, 2015

erikgraham said:
Your off base here, particularly with the bit about liability and separating consumer from professional drones, but also with respect to the embedded CPUs. As to "3DR technology" and IP, your basically vehemently agreeing with me. I think every one here understands open source and who owns the IP. Nonetheless, 3DR does indeed control the main branch. Furthermore, the company benefits financially from its popularity because they sell those components. Yes they can roll their own, but they don't.

Right on...

Axidrain · Aug 20, 2015

Any thoughts on DJI's Matrice platform? Seems like modular design might be incorporated in their future products. Looks pretty impressive

DodgeP · Aug 20, 2015

Axidrain said:
Any thoughts on DJI's Matrice platform? Seems like modular design might be incorporated in their future products. Looks pretty impressive

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Costs too much

erikgraham · Aug 20, 2015

Axidrain said:
Any thoughts on DJI's Matrice platform? Seems like modular design might be incorporated in their future products. Looks pretty impressive

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I love it. Great direction for them to take.

Axidrain · Aug 20, 2015

DodgeP said:
Costs too much

so was lightbridge when it first came out. now its built in to the new phantoms and inspire.

in any case, the future of commercial drones is looking pretty interesting. Oh and i just found out about this new drone http://en.xirodrone.com/. actually looks pretty good. more competition is alwasy good for us

DodgeP · Aug 20, 2015

Axidrain said:
so was lightbridge when it first came out. now its built in to the new phantoms and inspire.

in any case, the future of commercial drones is looking pretty interesting. Oh and i just found out about this new drone http://en.xirodrone.com/. actually looks pretty good. more competition is alwasy good for us

I have no idea what your response means. Lightbridge was solely an add on until recently. The initial investment for Matrice looks to intro itself at 5k. That's a far cry from the 3k cost of an Inspire 1 (if you don't plan on buying any batteries).