Is 3D Robotics in danger of closing it's doors?

[Ian [P13]]

3DR's Vice President from the marketing team has done an update on the Solo User's Facebook group following questions today, it clarifies 3DR's position.

 

[cameraguy]

Nah nothing rude there at all
Unless you actually read it

I had no idea I was participating in a discussion with such delicate flowers.

I've read posts from each of you that were somewhat....oh, I don't know... Curt.

 

[cameraguy]

Others may make up opinion (especially the infamous Craig) but I can always cite a source or reason for having a view. 3DR used to be smaller and used to sell fewer units with the IRIS and no one worried then. With the P4 DJI copied a fair few things from the Solo that alone shows even DJI know it's a good bit of kit.

3DR has had fantasic customer support going back years and that won't be changing. 3DR has even been recruiting at their head office but instead people will focus on the closure of other offices where it should be noted the support people are not based.

That's fine, but did I have to spend weeks researching your credibility to post a simple question? Did you expect that? Of course you didn't.

I've been attacked twice now this afternoon. When do you and the pirate apologize?

 

[pyrate]

yeah why don't you hang out and wait for that to happen.

 

[erikgraham]

Ok. Let's all stand down.

@cameraguy - 3DR has enough funding to keep the doors open through the 2nd quarter of 2017. But let's assume they closed their doors tomorrow. You still have the only drone with smooth multipoint cable cam. Assuming your screen name indicates your interest, then I think that feature alone makes Solo the best drone on the market right now for you. It certainly does for me, though I very much want to see optical flow for indoor flight and in areas with poor gps (along a wooded path). And I really want some kind of rudimentary obstacle avoidance like the P4. I really really want those features, but multi point cable cam trumps both. It should hold you over until the phantom 5 or some new Yuneec model is released.

@ the others... I'm afraid for 3DR. They have a timing problem. If you accept Chris andersons word that their funding will last through 2Q 2017 then things don't sound so dire. But they will need to start raising that capital this fall. To succeed they will need to be able to show some success breaking into the enterprise market. But enterprise sales cycles are very slow (which Chris discussed in the Orielly podcast). That's compounded by the fact that commercial operation requires a 333 exemption, which in turn requires a pilot. The value proposition to enterprise customers isn't going to be there. Especially when the enterprise customers do their due dillegence and figure out that the Solo isn't a hardened, completely reliable tech that doesn't require a trained operator. I hope Chris pulls off one more round of financing, but if they haven't made in roads into enterprise by this fall, which seems unlikely, then they are going to have a rough go convincing investors to pony up any cash. We all can plainly see that industries like agriculture, construction, and infrastructure inspection are ripe marketplaces for drones, but the technology and the regulatory environment just isn't there yet. 3DR could very well run out of time. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

 

[cameraguy]

Ok. Let's all stand down.

@cameraguy - 3DR has enough funding to keep the doors open through the 2nd quarter of 2017. But let's assume they closed their doors tomorrow. You still have the only drone with smooth multipoint cable cam. Assuming your screen name indicates your interest, then I think that feature alone makes Solo the best drone on the market right now for you. It certainly does for me, though I very much want to see optical flow for indoor flight and in areas with poor gps (along a wooded path). And I really want some kind of rudimentary obstacle avoidance like the P4. I really really want those features, but multi point cable cam trumps both. It should hold you over until the phantom 5 or some new Yuneec model is released.

@ the others... I'm afraid for 3DR. They have a timing problem. If you accept Chris andersons word that their funding will last through 2Q 2017 then things don't sound so dire. But they will need to start raising that capital this fall. To succeed they will need to be able to show some success breaking into the enterprise market. But enterprise sales cycles are very slow (which Chris discussed in the Orielly podcast). That's compounded by the fact that commercial operation requires a 333 exemption, which in turn requires a pilot. The value proposition to enterprise customers isn't going to be there. Especially when the enterprise customers do their due dillegence and figure out that the Solo isn't a hardened, completely reliable tech that doesn't require a trained operator. I hope Chris pulls off one more round of financing, but if they haven't made in roads into enterprise by this fall, which seems unlikely, then they are going to have a rough go convincing investors to pony up any cash. We all can plainly see that industries like agriculture, construction, and infrastructure inspection are ripe marketplaces for drones, but the technology and the regulatory environment just isn't there yet. 3DR could very well run out of time. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

Thanks Eric. Much appreciated.

 

[Dave Folts]

Ok. Let's all stand down.

@cameraguy - 3DR has enough funding to keep the doors open through the 2nd quarter of 2017. But let's assume they closed their doors tomorrow. You still have the only drone with smooth multipoint cable cam. Assuming your screen name indicates your interest, then I think that feature alone makes Solo the best drone on the market right now for you. It certainly does for me, though I very much want to see optical flow for indoor flight and in areas with poor gps (along a wooded path). And I really want some kind of rudimentary obstacle avoidance like the P4. I really really want those features, but multi point cable cam trumps both. It should hold you over until the phantom 5 or some new Yuneec model is released.

@ the others... I'm afraid for 3DR. They have a timing problem. If you accept Chris andersons word that their funding will last through 2Q 2017 then things don't sound so dire. But they will need to start raising that capital this fall. To succeed they will need to be able to show some success breaking into the enterprise market. But enterprise sales cycles are very slow (which Chris discussed in the Orielly podcast). That's compounded by the fact that commercial operation requires a 333 exemption, which in turn requires a pilot. The value proposition to enterprise customers isn't going to be there. Especially when the enterprise customers do their due dillegence and figure out that the Solo isn't a hardened, completely reliable tech that doesn't require a trained operator. I hope Chris pulls off one more round of financing, but if they haven't made in roads into enterprise by this fall, which seems unlikely, then they are going to have a rough go convincing investors to pony up any cash. We all can plainly see that industries like agriculture, construction, and infrastructure inspection are ripe marketplaces for drones, but the technology and the regulatory environment just isn't there yet. 3DR could very well run out of time. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

I'm not so much afraid Erik as I am shocked that a businessman would say he " made too many " of his product!

NO...they sold too few! Made too many sounds like a quip from a college biz professor... I.e. he talks about what he never has done for real.
Yeah...commercial is tough right now...I'm grounded right now while I get my damn pilot license...just a $6500 cost of doing business.
Btw...I notice DROTAMs up in the Houston class b airspace everyday! We'll get there boys!

 

[erikgraham]

I'm not so much afraid Erik as I am shocked that a businessman would say he " made too many " of his product!

NO...they sold too few! Made too many sounds like a quip from a college biz professor... I.e. he talks about what he never has done for real.
Yeah...commercial is tough right now...I'm grounded right now while I get my damn pilot license...just a $6500 cost of doing business.
Btw...I notice DROTAMs up in the Houston class b airspace everyday! We'll get there boys!

What's a DROTAM?

 

[Ian [P13]]

For those not on Facebook Vu has added in the last hour:

Yes, we've brought Commercial and Enterprise products to the front burners, but that doesn't mean that we're walking away from Solo. Solo is still alive and well. We have plans to continue to release some pretty cool SW features and fixes to improve the GPS/location/arming issues. We've got some cool things debuting at NAB for Solo under the Made For Solo program. We have not stepped back from our commitment to keep improving Solo.

Support hasn't changed. The warranty is still the same. My team is still here. I'm still here. We're testing out online chat support and in the future in app chat support, if that doesn't work out, we'll go back to phone support. You can still get phone support if you really want it, we'll call you back.

This community is great, I like the open dialogue. It's not all roses but if I wouldn't want it any other way. If you have questions about what's going on, feel free to ask me. If I can answer them without giving away company secrets, I will. If I can't answer them, I'll be honest with you and tell you so.

 

[Dave Folts]

What's a DROTAM?

DRONE Notice to Airman and Mariners (NOTAM)
see pics:

What's a DROTAM?

DRONE Notice to Aviators and Mariners (NOTAM) See pics linked:
View media item 280View media item 281

 

[The Suburban Hippie Ph]

Yes, they are in danger of closing their doors.

3DR Cuts Jobs, Shifts Focus - DRONELIFE

 

[Ian [P13]]

This is a repeat of the article already discussed. So no they're not in danger of closing their doors, the interview itself makes it entirely clear 3DR has current funding into 2017 and with large backers like Qualcomm there's no reason to believe more funding wouldn't be forthcoming if necessary.

A read of the comments from Oren and Vu clears matters up even further.

 

[erikgraham]

This is a repeat of the article already discussed. So no they're not in danger of closing their doors, the interview itself makes it entirely clear 3DR has current funding into 2017 and with large backers like Qualcomm there's no reason to believe more funding wouldn't be forthcoming if necessary.

A read of the comments from Oren and Vu clears matters up even further.

Except Qualcomm has written them off and is going back to a proprietary flight module, one they want to run on one chip instead of using an auto pilot. Qualcomm won't be investing anymore. They will just take what little they need from 3DR and go their own way.

 

[Ian [P13]]

Except Qualcomm has written them off and is going back to a proprietary flight module, one they want to run on one chip instead of using an auto pilot. Qualcomm won't be investing anymore. They will just take what little they need from 3DR and go their own way.

If 3DR is, as rumour suggests to be using the Qualcomm Snapdragon Flight there's clearly some kind of relationship there otherwise where's the logic in dropping the Pixhawk when it can be just as, or more powerful partnered with an Nvidia TX1?

 

[erikgraham]

If 3DR is, as rumour suggests to be using the Qualcomm Snapdragon Flight there's clearly some kind of relationship there otherwise where's the logic in dropping the Pixhawk when it can be just as, or more powerful partnered with an Nvidia TX1?

The point is more that Qualcomm doesn't need 3DR. They are looking to be the Qualcomm of drones, with everyone using their chips. Of course there is plenty of debate about how wise their strategy is (i.e. putting everything on one chip, vs a dedicated auto pilot with a companion computer).

But in Qualcomm eyes, 3DR isn't of much value. They can't move enough units and they don't own anything: ardupilot is open source GPL3. The pixhawk is open source hardware, also GPL3. The GpL3 is a big problem because Qualcomm can't do anything proprietary. If Qualcomm (who are pretty much running the show at 3DR) saw any value they wouldn't have layed off all the arducopter developers. I think the only guy they kept around is the guy who was responsible for the Solo branch. Meantime the lead on the Pixhawk2 quit and 3dr has no plans to comercialize it - why bother when the Chinese clone makers will just clone it for cheap and not offer a damn thing back to the open source community, just like they did with the first pixhawk.

I'm rambling so I'll stop. I should take the time to edit this, but Qualcomm is just going back to working on their own autopilot. That's what they were doing before they invested in 3DR.

Rumor is that 3DR doesn't even have the factory in China anymore. Just a warehouse with a bunch of Solos.

 

[Ian [P13]]

Philip who was the lead on Pixhawk 2 didn't quit, he was let go along with the developers for Arducopter. 3DR outsourced manufacturing, the same plant for example makes the GoPro so I don't think they owned a factory in China.

I agree I think 3DR's model of open source hardware that cloners simply copied without adding anything back never benefitted 3DR.

My point was the chip you're talking of is the Snapdragon Flight and given Chris Anderson has posted video promoting that chip it wouldn't be surprising to see 3DR writing closed source software for it, in fact there's no other obvious platform for 3DR next.

 

[erikgraham]

Philip who was the lead on Pixhawk 2 didn't quit, he was let go along with the developers for Arducopter. 3DR outsourced manufacturing, the same plant for example makes the GoPro so I don't think they owned a factory in China.

I agree I think 3DR's model of open source hardware that cloners simply copied without adding anything back never benefitted 3DR.

My point was the chip you're talking of is the Snapdragon Flight and given Chris Anderson has posted video promoting that chip it wouldn't be surprising to see 3DR writing closed source software for it, in fact there's no other obvious platform for 3DR next.

Well there is more to the story in how he left. But that's all I'm saying. There is no one left at 3DR to write the code, so that's not going to happen. Qualcomm has their own people for that. I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but I can see I'm being way too negative. I'm just bummed and discouraged.

I'll stop now. After all, I still love my Solo. With boat mode coming and multi point cable cam, the Solo is still the best drone for me. I just hope someone comes along to pick up where 3DR has left off in the consumer space. I'd even buy DJI if they added cable cam (a good one, not a herky jerky 3rd party copy).

 

[Ian [P13]]

That's not correct as there's Phu and his team and Jason writing smart moves, 3DR has had job vacancies advertised at Berkeley and recently employed a researcher that's been doing some advanced navigation research. So that doesn't add up to nil.

In fact 3DR look to be advertising a number of roles at Berkeley including computer vision and a developer for improving APM: Controls Engineer

 

[erikgraham]

That's not correct as there's Phu and his team and Jason writing smart moves, 3DR has had job vacancies advertised at Berkeley and recently employed a researcher that's being doing some advanced navigation research. So that doesn't add up to nil.

Smart shots is a far cry from coding an auto pilot. But let's hope your right. And let's hope they don't quietly leave in the next 6 months.

 

[franknitty69]

there are several people writing code. just look at the contributors or commits on the rebase. there are firmware or app betas every 2-3 weeks. i guess robots are writing those.